Bitcoin Floor Pattern Emerged Across Eight Metrics, Alphractal Says
A 90-day study of macroeconomic data and Bitcoin on-chain metrics reveals a pattern last seen in August 2024, when the market set a solid price bottom, according to analysis from Alphractal.
BTC On-Chain Conditions Point to Accumulation Phase
Monetary Policy Ceiling: The Fed maintained a 3.50–3.75% range of rates in April, though four members of the committee dissented — a level of split opinion not seen since 1992. The dissent is being read as a ceiling on hawkish positioning rather than a precursor to further tightening.
Dollar and Gold Signals: The dollar index meanwhile sits near 99.4, a six-week peak. Historical mapping of 2023–24 price cycles shows Bitcoin lows forming within roughly two weeks of DXY peaks. The liquidity signature of gold that is trading around $4,600 is repeating, indicating general selling pressure among risk assets, not necessarily Bitcoin.
Exchange Supply Compression: Supply-side data tells a comparable story. Bitcoin held by exchanges has decreased to about 2.69 million coins, or around 5.6% of the circulating supply, and the lowest level of reserves in eight years. Over the last few months, some 170,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, reducing the amount of sell-side coins available to be released into the market for the distribution to be mechanized.
SOPR Breakeven Crossover: The Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is shown in the Alphractal chart, now shows a reading of 1.0008, just above the breakeven point, after having been in negative territory for February. The chart illustrates that the crossings from below the 1.0 line have corresponded to the end of bear-phase selling behavior in the past.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation: The short-term holder SOPR has rebounded from an average realised loss of around 7.85% in January, and is now at about breakeven, indicating that the most ‘at risk’ sellers have mostly sold off.
Derivative Positioning: The average funding rate of derivatives positioning has remained around +0.005% per eight hours for the last month, which is far from a sign of over leveraged long exposure. Rebuild of open interest since mid-May seems to have been spot-driven and not futures-led, eliminating one of the more usual triggers for a run of sharp liquidation cascades.
Whale Accumulation vs Retail Retreat: The entities identified as whales have now gathered around 270,000 BTC over the past month, the highest amount since November, while addresses classified as retail miners have seen their activity decline.
Long-Term Holder Conviction: Bitcoin’s long-term holders (those holding for five or more years) are still in their historic low green zone, and dormant supply (total supply without any transactions for 5+ years) has the highest share of total supply on record at 33.14%.
Structural Convergence
The eight variables measured over this period are not in isolation unusual, as each has come across these cycles within individual periods. What makes the current reading so special is that they all look exhausted at the same time: monetary tightening is already over, speculative leverage hasn’t been significantly restored, the group most inclined to sell at a loss has done so, and the big holders are not selling but buying more.
This has been the case in past cycles as well, with this combination leading a price recovery, not further declines. Whether that pattern holds will depend on how macro conditions evolve, but the on-chain structure entering this phase carries fewer of the warning signs typically associated with late-cycle euphoria or active distribution.
