Bitcoin Rally Toward ATH Hinges on $118K Breakout

• Bitcoin rallied after the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut of 2025, sparking volatility. 
• Analysts say the $118,000 price zone is the most critical resistance before new highs can be tested. 
• Despite sideways trading in recent weeks, September has already delivered one of Bitcoin’s strongest monthly gains in over a decade.
  

Bitcoin (BTC) once again finds itself on the edge of a crucial breakout, as market attention shifts to the $118,000 resistance zone that traders and analysts say must be conquered before any run toward fresh all-time highs can materialize. BTC recently staged a rebound following weeks of sideways trading that left some investors frustrated and others cautious, assisted by the United States Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut. 

On Thursday, Bitcoin experienced a brief retracement to trade around $115,000 before staging a sharp rebound, liquidating over $100 million in long and short positions within a single day.

$BTC update:

FOMC Price Action nailed 🔨

Boring Monday and Tuesday; Wednesday volatile with the classic retrace of an initial false move.

$105M liquidated in 30mins during FOMC, that's what it's important to be aware of this.

Absolutely love this market. Probably $120k next. https://t.co/azE7Fg6J10 pic.twitter.com/x3EPCmIlOx

— CrypNuevo 🔨 (@CrypNuevo) September 17, 2025

That sudden flush highlighted both the risks and the opportunity that come when liquidity thins and price whipsaws around key levels. Market participants now argue that the next few days may determine whether Bitcoin continues to stall in its current range or finally breaks into uncharted territory.

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe voiced the question many investors are asking, writing that the real test remains whether Bitcoin can clear and hold the $118,000 mark. He suggested that altcoins could see renewed momentum once Bitcoin stabilizes, a sentiment echoed by other analysts pointing to broader shifts in market confidence.

Analysts Agree the $118,000 Level Defines the Battle Line for Bitcoin Momentum

Several well-followed traders have zeroed in on the $118,000 level not only as psychological resistance but also as a technical one. Popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that the price region represents a “high volume node,” meaning it has historically attracted heavy buying and selling interest. Whenever such clusters form, price action tends to react strongly, and a clear flip into support often triggers the next phase of rallies.

Liquidity data from CoinGlass further illustrates the story. Order books show thick walls of liquidity at both $116,500 and $119,000, essentially boxing Bitcoin into a narrow corridor as buyers and sellers attempt to protect their positions. The presence of these so-called guardrails has made price action choppy in recent sessions, but history suggests that when such bands finally give way, the resulting move is often decisive.

Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium last month continue to resonate with markets. His suggestion that rate cuts could extend beyond 2025 has encouraged risk appetite, giving assets like Bitcoin a stronger tailwind. Traders now believe the macro backdrop could act as a catalyst if technical resistance is broken, making the coming sessions critical for long-term momentum.

September Strength Adds to Bitcoin’s Case for Another Historic Bull Run

Despite the hurdles, one overlooked detail is how well Bitcoin has performed this September, historically known as its weakest month. Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s current 8% gain for September 2025 marks its second-best September ever, trailing only the remarkable 19.8% return in 2012. That achievement is even more notable given the asset’s size and maturity compared to earlier cycles.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, recently told CNBC that this period of quiet consolidation may be setting the stage for a much stronger push later this year. He highlighted how treasuries and institutions experimenting with Ethereum and Solana still ultimately create more liquidity and attention for Bitcoin, which he described as the “anchor” of digital assets. That perspective suggests that even temporary diversions into altcoins do not diminish Bitcoin’s role but instead broaden the ecosystem in ways that circle back to the original cryptocurrency.