Bitcoin Price Recovery Unlikely in Next 3-6 Months, Warns CryptoQuant CEO
The crypto market is once again in a precarious condition, exposing it to losses even more severe than those witnessed during the October crash. In line with this bearish trend, the Bitcoin price is on shaky ground as the cryptocurrency price hovers around a low of $80k for the first time in seven months.
While this negative sentiment sparks caution and uncertainty among investors and traders, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that BTC is unlikely to recover in the upcoming months. This forecast is based on a combination of on-chain data analysis and macroeconomic trends, which suggest that the current environment is not conducive to sustained growth.
Bitcoin Price Plummets Below k: Is a Recovery Possible?
BTC is currently facing one of its largest crashes, with the price plummeting to around $80k, after touching an all-time high of $126k in early October. Despite bullish projections, the crypto exhibited a bearish trend reversal, experiencing continuous declines.
In the face of fluctuating prices, the cryptocurrency continued to plummet, slipping below the crucial $100k mark recently, sparking widespread caution and anxiety. As the crypto remained on the same negative track, it has now plummeted below $83k, targeting $80.
As of press time, the Bitcoin price is valued at $82,967, marking significant dips of 9.57%, 14%, and 23.3% over the past day, week, and month, respectively. Amid this market downturn, traders are largely utilizing the buy-the-dip opportunity, accumulating more coins. This is clearly visible from the 53% surge in the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $124 billion.
Is a Recovery Possible for BTC Price?
According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, this market downturn is concerning, as the cryptocurrency price is expected to sustain this negative sentiment for the next three to six months. As noted by him, the Bitcoin price recovery remains uncertain for the upcoming six months, until the liquidity returns.
In his recent post on X, Ju posited that the market appeared more bearish than he had anticipated. He added that a potential bull run is possible only once liquidity returns to the market the following year.
As per his statement, macro liquidity played a more significant role than the on-chain cycle. He noted that dollar liquidity was tightening and risk assets were being sold, a trend that would probably persist until liquidity eased. He stated,
“Macro liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle. Dollar liquidity is tightening, risk assets are being sold, and this trend will likely continue until liquidity eases next year.”
Both market and on-chain data indicated weak liquidity for the time being, Ju added. He reiterated his previous statement that the on-chain bull cycle had concluded under the classic cycle theory.
Although a sharp bounce to around $100k was possible for the Bitcoin price, he cautioned that failure to break through that level could lead to another lower low. Humbly admitting that he was not a macro expert and relied on experts like Luke Gromen, he added,
“I’m not a macro expert. I know the basics, but my focus is on Bitcoin on-chain data, so I rely on skilled macro analysts. Among them, I pay the closest attention to Luke Gromen.”
Agreeing with Gromen’s analysis, he argued that a large US fiscal deficit and weakened foreign demand for Treasuries could destabilize the Treasury market without fresh liquidity. Once liquidity returns, he believes scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin will appreciate in value.
