Wintermute: Crypto Holds Firm Despite Fed Pressure, ETF Inflows
According to the weekly report by Wintermute, Bitcoin has remained near the $80,000 level despite stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. The X post stated that the BTC token hit about $82,400 before the payrolls report pushed it lower, but it still finished the week higher.
Markets are now pricing roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s September meeting, however, on a positive note, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have continued to record net inflows. The combination has raised questions about whether crypto is showing greater resilience as investors reassess the outlook for interest rates.
Moreover, Wintermute argues that some capital may be moving from equities into digital assets as stock-market momentum cools. This interpretation remains unproven, however, and Bitcoin is still exposed to changes in interest-rate expectations. The next major test comes with this week’s inflation data ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
Bitcoin Holds Up After Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Hike Expectations
The August U.S. employment report provided the latest test for financial markets. The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, compared with expectations of about 53,000, according to the data cited by Wintermute. The stronger reading increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting.
The Federal Reserve’s official calendar confirms that the two-day meeting is scheduled for September 15 and 16. Bitcoin initially reacted to the employment data with a decline. Wintermute said BTC had reached roughly $82,400 earlier in the week before payrolls pushed the price below $80,000 in a matter of minutes. The cryptocurrency nevertheless ended the week up 3.45% and above $80,000.
Wintermute’s interpretation is that the market’s reaction could indicate demand that is not entirely dependent on expectations for easier monetary policy. The firm argues that money leaving equities and a consolidating gold market may be moving into crypto. This remains a market interpretation rather than established evidence of a broad portfolio shift.
ETF flows provide another data point. Wintermute reported about $987 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows during the week, marking a third consecutive positive week and bringing the three-week total close to $3.8 billion. Thursday, September 3, 2026, accounted for about $731 million, which the firm identified as its largest single-day inflow since January. Ethereum ETF activity was weaker over the same period.
Wintermute reported approximately $215 million in ETH ETF inflows, down from $816 million previously. That suggests recent ETF demand has been more concentrated in Bitcoin, although a single week’s flow data does not establish a longer-term allocation trend.
Bitcoin’s performance also needs to be considered alongside the wider market. Higher interest-rate expectations can affect cryptocurrencies through Treasury yields, the dollar and broader investor appetite for risk. The fact that Bitcoin remained relatively firm during the latest rate repricing does not mean those factors have stopped influencing the market.
CPI Will Provide The Next Test For Bitcoin’s Recent Resilience
The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the August CPI release for Friday, September 11, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The inflation report matters because it could influence expectations for the Fed’s September decision. A hotter-than-expected reading could increase the likelihood that markets continue pricing a rate hike, while a softer reading could reduce some of that pressure. The Producer Price Index is due one day earlier, on September 10, giving investors another inflation reading before the Fed meeting.
Wintermute identifies $82,000 as a level Bitcoin needs to clear and $72,000 as the point at which it would reconsider its current outlook. These are the firm’s own market levels rather than established technical thresholds accepted across the market.
Other analysts have placed the immediate trading range closer to $77,000-$82,000, with the focus shifting between those levels as investors await the inflation data. The firm’s broader argument is that capital could be rotating from equities into crypto as parts of the stock market lose momentum. But the evidence so far does not establish whether that is a sustained change in investor allocation or simply positioning around a major macroeconomic event.
Recent Reddit discussion reflects that uncertainty, with traders focusing on whether Bitcoin can hold the high-$70,000s while rate expectations remain elevated. The discussion should be treated as an example of community sentiment rather than representative of the wider crypto market. Bitcoin’s return below $80,000 also shows why the level remains a short-term point of attention. The cryptocurrency was trading around $78,000-$79,000 on September 8 as investors waited for the inflation reports and the Fed meeting.
